On Value Drift 

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On Value Drift 

Shows just how much values drift over time. 


The outcomes within any space-time region can be seen as resulting from 1) preferences of various actors able to influence the universe in that region, 2) absolute and relative power and influence of those actors, and 3) constraints imposed by the universe. Changes in outcomes across regions result from changes in these factors.

While you might mostly approve of changes resulting from changing constraints, you might worry more about changes due to changing values and influence. That is, you likely prefer to see more influence by values closer to yours. Unfortunately, the consistent historical trend has been for values to drift over time, increasing the distance between random future and current values. As this trend looks like a random walk, we see no obvious limit to how far values can drift. So if the value you place on the values of others falls rapidly enough with the distance between values, you should expect long term future values to be very wrong.

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