Navigation Menu

Cities of Orare

In 2045 everyone's voice contributes to an emergent global choir!
The drawn peace-, or V-hand-sign encourages people to make use of their voice. through V.O.I.C.E.
Sofiá calibrating a new General Robot care-unit to their new environment.
This future value-compass indicates the thousands of preferences of a single human.

Overview

Cities of Orare imagines a future where AI-powered prediction markets called Orare amplify collective intelligence, enhancing liberal democracy, economic distribution, and policy-making. Its adoption across Africa and globally has fostered decentralized governance, democratizing decision-making, and spurring significant health and economic advancements.

Existential Hope Vision

What makes this future a desirable outcome for humanity?

In the early 2000s, concern about the state of democracy was growing. Polarization was widespread and democratic political systems were becoming less effective, creating a looming threat of a global rise in authoritarianism. Public discourse around improving democratic systems seemed stagnant. Furthermore, market failures were creating problems across domains, from climate change to extreme inequality in access to healthcare.

By 2045, however, things look radically different: Policymaking is more effective than ever, global financial inequality has reduced with even most of Africa seeing massive economic growth, and the general economic landscape looking much more aligned with the long-term flourishing of humankind. The crisis of polarization is now behind us, with people participating in truth-seeking democracy through a system of direct predictive democracy. Orare - the AI-powered platform, based on group predictions and real feedback from the world, enables subsidiarity and reduces conflict between groups. The economic success of the system enables a new kind of universal basic income (UBI), based on thoughtful participation in collective decision-making. Since decisions in finance are now also made more and more through democracy, the values of humans become better imbued in the economic system, enabling rapid advances in fields like bioengineering and resulting in a process mirroring the concept of Differential Technological Development to a surprisingly high degree.

In 2045, the world is less polarized, democratic and economic systems are more reliable and effective, and inequality - including financial, and in terms of healthcare - is going down faster than ever before. The people have more and more power, and technological progress is moving in the direction of collective flourishing.

Top 3 goals of the world:

  • Radical advancement in democracy: Orare is facilitating a peaceful transition to a system combining futarchy with direct democracy. AI-powered predictions facilitate better policies, while financial rewards incentivise people, including marginalized groups, to participate in decision-making.
  • Health equity through bioengineering: Improved biological data sharing has increased our knowledge on disease and epidemiology. Advancements in biomanufacturing have led to the eradication of many preventable communicable diseases.
  • Economic prosperity spread worldwide: The living conditions in many African countries become much closer to those of the most advanced economies.

Significant challenges that this world must overcome:

  • Democratic backsliding: Trust in democracy going down challenges Orare’s principles, institutional adoption of Orare, and democracy in general. 
  • Public trust in science: Mistrust in scientific and public health experts has created risks of vaccine hesitancy and mistrust of new technological innovations.
  • Orare’s operating principles: Ensuring Orare is truly democratic, and not technocratic or authoritarian is a constant priority and threat.

Core Elements of this World

Technology & Science

1. What is a major problem that AI (not AGI!) has solved in your world, and how did it do so?

AI has become exceptionally good at forecasting the future and anticipating the outcomes of collective decisions and policies. 

In 2025, nestled in the innovation hub of the Bay Area, Orare emerged as a beacon of ambition, aiming to redefine the boundaries of AI's predictive prowess. Prior achievements in the field had seen AI matching the foresight of top human forecasters, yet Orare's vision soared higher. 

Through a year-long, intricate experiment leveraging millions of large language models, Orare confronted the daunting task of extracting future insights from historical data without succumbing to overfitting. Their methodology? A dynamic, live-testing arena where thousands of real-world predictions were meticulously measured against actual outcomes. The results were nothing short of groundbreaking. Orare's AI, though not without its missteps, achieved an accuracy level previously unseen, dwarfing the predictive capabilities of humans, markets, and existing models alike. 

While this achievement could potentially yield substantial financial gains for Orare, especially in financial markets, the team was committed to using their technology to benefit humanity at large, aligning with their core values of broad-based transformation and improvement.

2. Why does AGI not exist?

Defining AGI precisely is hard. Interestingly, what might have been hailed as AGI, such as GPT-4, in earlier times, gradually became viewed as benchmarks of progress rather than the final frontier. Between 2024 and 2045, AI evolved dramatically, yet with each leap forward, our expectations and definitions of AGI shifted, becoming ever more stringent. 

By 2045, AI's prowess in forecasting the future and excelling in specialized fields like healthcare, education, and research and development was undeniable. However, it still lacked the holistic, generalized intelligence that characterizes human cognition. 

The primary hurdle was the diminishing returns on the scaling hypothesis—the idea that simply enlarging model sizes and increasing computational training would usher in AGI. This approach began to show its limitations, leading to a sort of 'new winter' in achieving general capabilities, despite the impressive advancements in specific applications. This period underscored a growing consensus: reaching AGI would require more than just scaling up existing models; it demanded a rethinking of the foundational assumptions about how artificial intelligence can achieve a truly generalized understanding and reasoning capability.

3. What are two new non-AI technologies that have played an important role in the development of your world?

Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) for collective decision-making. The Orare team was committed to ensuring their technology served humanity at large and resolved to release all AI forecasts publicly, aiming to enhance collective decision-making and policy formulation positively. Inspired by the concept of futarchy, the team decided to create a DAO and publish all predictions on the blockchain. The DAO was based on the following principles:

  • Anyone has equal access to the DAO. 1 living human being = 1 token 
  • Any interaction on the blockchain requires bio-identification that ensures privacy - Anyone can ask questions about future outcomes. 
  • The DAO can leverage its insights to invest money on the financial market, fund companies and make profits. 
  • 84% of the profits are redistributed equally to members.
  • 16% are redistributed to the predictors, mainly Orare AI but anyone can compete - To get their rewards, members need to answer a set of questions each month, revealing information and personal preferences about future outcomes. 

The DAO's launch excited tech circles but faced a hiccup as swift adoption outpaced profits, reducing monthly rewards from $3000 to under $50, deterring interest in developed nations.  Yet, in developing countries, the appeal persisted, leading to significant uptake, notably 85% in Kenya by 2027, with Ivory Coast and Ethiopia following. 

Growing collective expertise boosted the DAO's profitability, raising monthly rewards to $2000 by 2030, $5000 by 2035, and $12000 by 2045, securing global adoption. 

Health equity through bioengineering. By prioritizing the bioeconomy, technological advancements were primarily made in biomanufacturing, and biological data sharing. 

Particularly the strong push towards novel manufacturing methods through novel approval mechanisms by the FDA and EMA in 2025 has accelerated pharmaceutical companies to explore innovative methods of generating drugs. In return, precision biomanufacturing has become more affordable. We now routinely make phage therapies for hard-to-treat bacterial infections. This helps us treat antibiotic-resistant infections. Manufacturing of mRNA based vaccines is now widespread worldwide with supply chains that make most countries self-sustaining. Vaccine supply in developing countries is now less dependent on foreign aid. With the improvement of cell therapy manufacturing, blood cancers are now fully curable through engineered immune cell therapies. 

In addition to innovative manufacturing methods, improved biological data security protocols are invented and data infrastructure worldwide significantly improved. This has led to the rapid adoption of global early warning systems for pathogens. Wastewater is routinely sequenced across the world and exponentially increasing pathogens of concerns are reported through consortia. Pathogens of pandemic potential are rapidly contained. The improved data infrastructure also led to global uptake of newborn whole genome sequencing. Improved genomic data sharing drastically increased our knowledge on disease.

4. How does your world utilize technology and address potential coordination challenges and risks arising from the technologies you focus on?

The above technological advancements play an active role in the daily life of people in our world. 

The voting system uptake initially leads to only a certain set of people benefiting from the system economically. However, this quickly changes. The system is designed to have a low barrier to entry, and participation is easy. This, and the interaction with existing institutions of governance, prevents deviations from democracy. 

While advancements in genetic technologies, biological materials engineering and pharmaceuticals continued on a similar trend as in the 2020’s, the positive effects of genomic data sharing made people more amenable to large-scale impact bioengineering, and technologies such as gene drives became acceptable to certain populations: gene drives, personal medicine gene therapies and phage therapy. Similarly, biotech hubs started popping up in previously underrepresented areas. The new biotech capitals are in Senegal (Institut Pasteur Dakar), Kenya and India (SII), rather than in Boston and San Francisco. Biosecurity risks are taken seriously: Early warning systems are able to detect engineered pathogens, and gene synthesis companies undergo digital screening of every construct they generate

Values & Community

1. How do people live, work, and interact in this hopeful future?

Since local policy has become more effective and democratic, most areas are going through positive developments improving quality of life, especially for those who used to have less political power. Housing availability is improving in most major and minor cities, safe public transport is becoming more accessible, and there's been an increase in public spaces for communities to gather in. People live healthier lives, with better access to outdoor and indoor spaces suitable for exercise, including investments in walkable and bike-safe cities. Genome sequencing has paved the way for personalized medicine, improving healthcare and prognoses across the board, and paving the way for affordable treatments for a range of diseases. 

A number of people are able to make a living off of making bets on Orare, quitting their jobs in favor of making more and better predictions. In the areas with the highest adoption rates of the platform, people are granted a small basic income for voting, enabling people to work less, if they so choose. This further reduces local inequality and is showing as a boost in cultural activity, physical and mental health, and birth rates. 

Schools are evolving through parallel experiments in teaching methods. The progress seems to be towards a flexible system where each student gets to choose the kind of teaching that works best for them. Some opt for action-based group work; Others prefer discussion-based classes; The most independent pupils prefer self-guided study. Children are also encouraged to participate in the votes that influence them, creating a sense of civil duty from a young age. 

Elderly care is increasingly no longer outsourced to profit-seeking companies. Instead, through community spaces and novel community projects, the elderly are more integrated into everyday life, sharing their time and wisdom with their communities in the form of looking after children, helping with homework, teaching skills and giving advice to the younger generations. The elderly are also a key user group of Orare, providing wisdom and values over many decades.

2. What is a notable beneficial trend in this world and what is a trend many are concerned about?

The developing world has taken significant strides in asserting control over public health, focusing on the prevention and eradication of communicable diseases rather than relying on external aid. These nations have become leaders in the development of gene drives, a technology that has led to the eradication of mosquito-borne illnesses such as West Nile virus, Zika, and Malaria. Simultaneously, the widespread adoption of vaccination has resulted in the elimination or eradication of numerous vaccine-preventable diseases, including polio, Guinea worm disease, lymphatic filariasis, cysticercosis, measles, mumps, and rubella by 2045. The developed world, meanwhile, has concentrated on precision medicine and innovative manufacturing methods, resulting in more affordable therapies that have been disseminated to developing countries. This global collaboration has led to healthier lives worldwide, with diseases like cholera, tuberculosis, and diphtheria being eliminated. 

A more worrying trend, the decline in national election participation stands in stark contrast to the high and increasing voting activity seen in Orare. As people embrace the direct democracy facilitated by Orare's online voting system, they are beginning to view elected officials as relics of a bygone era. The necessity of funding the debates of professional politicians, particularly at local and national levels, is being called into question. With the rise of this new form of democratic engagement, the future of long-standing representative democratic institutions appears uncertain. The revolution in direct democracy, made possible by Orare, has the potential to render these traditional structures obsolete.

3. Which of today’s values does society keep, which of today’s values does society expel, and which new values has this society added?

Society continues to value freedom and liberty, with most people additionally recognising community and mutual support as an important aspect of life. Significant geographical differences remain, reflected in differences in policy despite evidence and predictions being very similar everywhere. For example, countries in Northern Europe continue to invest in public services, finding better and better ways to support the well-being of their citizens, while the USA is paving the way in policy for social justice, focusing its efforts on identifying and debating the most effective solutions to combat structural inequality. However, the progress in one country is soon reflected in the policy of another: As experimental policies prove to be successful in one place, predictions of their efficacy globally strengthen, incentivising more conservative nations to adopt similar policies. 

Civic duty is growing as a key value in all the areas where Orare has so far seen large-scale adoption. People experience more ownership of policy, and they see political participation as a duty and a privilege. More people than ever before are engaged, especially in groups traditionally underrepresented in politics. What started as a smart financial decision, voting is now increasingly seen as the responsibility and normal, near-daily habit of any upstanding citizen.

Economy & Institutions

1. What is a new or reformed institution that has played an important role in the development of your world?

Following widespread adoption by its citizens, Kenya became the pioneer in integrating the Orare AI into its governmental decision-making process. 

Throughout the 2010s, Kenya had surged to become Eastern Africa's leading economy, fueled by dynamic private investments, a flurry of innovative businesses, and swift digital adoption. However, the nation's growth was constrained by convoluted regulations, insufficient public investment (notably in poorer regions), and a discouraging tax system. 

Prior to the 2027 elections, Kenyans had already witnessed Orare's benefits at a local level in making collective decisions and funding key public services. The election campaign saw a groundswell of support for Orare's expanded national role, with four out of five candidates committing to utilize Orare if elected. 

In 2028, the groundbreaking Governance Systems Act was passed, mandating that significant decisions on public fund allocation, investment, and regulation undergo public scrutiny and discussion, primarily through Orare. This move dramatically enhanced the transparency and efficiency of Kenya's governance, tax system, and public investment management. 

By 2035, Kenya was heralded globally for its exemplary governance, setting a benchmark for the world in transparency, tax system efficiency, and regulatory and public investment management.

2. How has one sector of society been transformed by new technologies?

Orare's impact on healthcare stands as one of its most notable successes, significantly reshaping the sector. 

It became evident through Orare's evaluations that, despite the high financial resources allocated to health in developed countries—often perceived as ample due to inflated costs in a malfunctioning market—the actual global investment in health, longevity, and healthspan fell short of its societal value. 

Orare played a critical role in redirecting focus and resources toward the most promising scientific and R&D endeavors, particularly in biomanufacturing. It also influenced new regulatory approval processes by agencies like the FDA and EMA, thereby incentivizing scientific and corporate investments in health innovation. 

Orare was also instrumental in disseminating effective healthcare practices and policies across the developing world, leading to remarkable public health victories. Notable achievements include accelerating the decline in infant mortality, the eradication of mosquito-borne diseases such as Malaria, alongside the elimination of several vaccine-preventable diseases, including polio. These accomplishments underscore Orare's pivotal role in aligning healthcare resources and priorities with global health values, ushering in significant advancements in global health and disease prevention.

3. How have the following branches of economics evolved, and what are their current roles?

Microeconomics (individuals and organizations)

With Orare, individual preferences play nearly as significant a role in shaping non-market sectors as they do within market environments. Many national budget processes grew more transparent, with fund allocations increasingly reflecting citizens' preferences and desired outcomes. That is also one of the reasons the system was so effective in healthcare where market mechanisms are affected by huge asymmetries of information. 

Macroeconomics (nation-state level – if it still exists)

Thanks to Orare's impact assessment, macroeconomic policies have become nearly as evidence-based as microeconomic policies. With increased economic prosperity worldwide, Orare ended up playing the role of Universal Basic Income through its reward mechanism. With higher predictability of economic outcomes, the financial markets have become more stable, crises and bubbles are rare and limited.

Global Political Economy (global economic policies and geopolitics)

Orare challenges decisions favoring perceived national or elite interests over the actual interests of the population. As a result, the influence of such decisions in global affairs is lessened. Additionally, by predicting and highlighting the adverse effects of conflicts and tensions on populations, Orare contributes to making these occurrences less frequent.

A day in the life

The sun rises over Nakuru, painting the sky with hues of gold and pink, casting a warm glow over the city's skyline. From my apartment window, I watch as the streets below come to life with the rhythm of daily activity. Nakuru, once a city of contrasts, now stands as a testament to Orare's triumphs. Many come visit our city, as it stands as a model of prosperity and sustainability. It was the perfect place for Orare to become as successful as it did. The Kenyan drive for entrepreneurship, and our appetite for implementing green energy made many of us choose Orare.

Stepping out onto my balcony, I breathe in the crisp morning air tinged with the scent of blooming jacaranda trees. Down below, the city pulses with energy, skyscrapers reaching toward the heavens like gleaming monuments to progress. Amidst the towering buildings, rooftop gardens flourish, their lush greenery a stark contrast to the steel and glass that surrounds them. I lace up my sneakers and grab my tote bag, ready to embark on my daily adventure. “Nia”, I call out, “I’m headed out, can you make sure to help Kimathi with differentials?”. Kimathi, my son, is currently in engineering immersion with his friends.

Nakuru's streets await, each corner holding the promise of discovery and connection. As I pedal through the bustling thoroughfares, I marvel at the seamless integration of nature and technology, where solar-powered streetlights illuminate the path ahead, and the bullet train glides past with silent grace. Arriving at the rooftop gardens, I check in with my digital identity, and I am greeted by a kaleidoscope of colors and scents—the vibrant hues of ripening fruits and vegetables, the earthy aroma of freshly turned soil. It's one of many gardens in our city, where you can engage in manual labor. Our crops are engineered for nutritious value, but the purple tomatoes still taste as good as my grandmother’s 20 years ago. As I wander through the rows of plants, selecting some produce for tonight's dinner, I stumble upon a covered off greenhouse tucked away from prying eyes. Curiosity piqued, I approach cautiously, only to find a group of individuals engaged in animated conversation. “Nia?”, “Yes”, “engage privacy.” “engaged.”. While most people decide to keep their digital identity open at most times for convenience, I’m still cautious when approaching new groups. One of them—a woman with strikingly familiar features— speaks up. “Jambo, stranger”, she says. “Hello. What’s this all about?” I respond. They introduce themselves as The Keepers of Tradition, guardians of Kenya's cultural heritage in an age of rapid change. Then followed an afternoon of stories about people getting sick in the north east of the city. But our bio-surveillance program isn’t picking up any exponentially increasing unknown pathogens in the waste water. Memories flood back to me, of stories whispered in hushed tones, of many people getting sick and dying during turbulent times where infectious diseases were widespread in our country. “It must be some chemicals being dumped by the new drug manufacturing company”, a woman spoke up. “We could perhaps vote for an inspection on our waterways!”.

With a sense of purpose burning within me, I cast my vote for a new policy for bioremediation of wastewater using the Orare system, a testament to Kenya's commitment to democracy and civic engagement. In the end, I realize that true prosperity lies not in the gleaming skyscrapers or cutting-edge technology, but in the connections we forge with one another and with our shared history. And as I pedal homeward through the fading light, I carry with me the echoes of tradition, guiding me toward a future shaped by the wisdom of the past.

Timeline

2025 - Creation of Orare

2028 - The Governance Systems Act

Governance Systems Act mandates that significant decisions on public fund allocation, investment, and regulation undergo public scrutiny and discussion, primarily through Orare. This move dramatically enhanced the transparency and efficiency of Kenya's governance, tax system, and public investment management.

2030 - Institutional prioritization of the bioeconomy in Kenya

2034 - Eradication of mosquito borne illnesses

Eradication of mosquito borne illnesses (West Nile virus, Zika Malaria) through gene drive efforts led in Kenya, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, South Africa, Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia, and India through Gene Drive technology.

2041 - GDP per capita of Ivory Coast and Kenya surpasses Japan